Monday, September 29, 2008

The Dow Belongs at ~8,000


The Times is treating today's falling DOW as though it were 9/11. Ignore this. The DOW (and attendant commodity- and oil futures) will be up and down a lot over the coming months.

The real question is not how much the DOW is up or down in a day, but where does the DOW really belong?

It belongs at 8,000.

Once credit leverage has been removed from the market, the market can then assess asset prices (securities, home prices, commodities) for their real (non-leveraged, supply-demand) market value.