Thursday, October 2, 2008

Live Blogging from the Risk Metrics Conference Call

Live Blogging from the Credit Crisis call hosted by Risk Metrics with Nouriel Roubini, Barry Ritholtz, and Zach Gast:
  • Barry is very bullish on physical gold, less bullish on paper gold. He says put 5-10% of your portfolio in it, and "go to the store and buy the bars, if you have to."
  • Zach notes that the ban on short selling hasn't kept financial stock from dropping and that it's raised the transaction costs. Barry says the ban has been counterproductive.
  • Nouriel argues for an FDIC guarantee on all deposits on all amounts.
  • Zach suggests that the Treasury should match institutional and PE investments.
  • Barry predicts that there's a 40% chance that the House won't pass TARP tomorrow.
  • Barry predicts that the DOW will drop another 15-20% from its peak.
  • Nouriel thinks the dollar will range between $1.50-1.60 per euro. He thinks that American exports will shrink, no matter what.
  • Barry thinks that, long term ("3-6 months"), defense, infrastructure, and small-to-medium-cap biotech and medical devices.
  • Barry notes that Buffet is one of Obama's economic advisers, and that McCain also has some good advisers, but concedes that McCain has some real idiots on his team. But on the top rung, he says they are toe-to-toe.